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Глобальный финансовый цикл: концепция, эмпирическая оценка и следствия для экономической политики
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-43-56
Аннотация
В статье рассмотрена концепция глобального финансового цикла, предложенная Э. Рей с соавторами. Обсуждаются движущие силы глобального финансового цикла, а также результаты эмпирических исследований этой концепции. Показано, что признание шоков монетарной политики США в качестве первоосновы глобального финансового цикла не означает отказ от идеи «несовместимой троицы» (или «невозможной троицы») при проведении макроэкономической политики: режим плавающего валютного курса по-прежнему способствует смягчению внешних шоков в случае развивающихся стран и государств с формирующимся рынком. При этом его эффект может быть усилен за счет мер макропруденциального регулирования и частичного ограничения движения капитала. Рассматриваются некоторые направления развития концепции глобального финансового цикла.
Ключевые слова
глобальный финансовый цикл,
шоки денежно-кредитной политики,
“несовместимая троица”,
потоки капитала.
JEL: E44, E52, F42
Об авторе
М. И. Столбов
Московский государственный институт международных отношений (Университет) МИД России
Россия
Россия
Столбов Михаил Иосифович, д. э. н., завкафедрой прикладной экономики
Москва
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Для цитирования:
Столбов М.И. Глобальный финансовый цикл: концепция, эмпирическая оценка и следствия для экономической политики. Вопросы экономики. 2021;(5):43-56. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-43-56
For citation:
Stolbov M.I. The global financial cycle: Notion, empirical evidence and policy implications. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2021;(5):43-56. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-43-56
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