|Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-3-5-30
Abstract
The paper deals with social and economic consequences of COVID-19 in the context of long-term trends of economic development. The current crisis is compared with economic and war cataclysms of 20th—21st centuries. Special attention is paid to types of anti-crisis policies as well as to relations between anti-crisis (short-term) and modernization (medium-term) challenges. The paper discusses the influence of pandemic on budget and monetary policies, trends of globalization, and new approaches to government regulation of economic development.
Keywords
social and economic development,
anti-crisis policies,
modernization,
globalization,
budget and monetary policies,
Modern Monetary Theory,
government regulation
JEL: E61, E66, F51, H53, H54, O52
About the Author
V. A. Mau
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir A. Mau - Author affiliation
Moscow
References
1. Bank of Russia (2020). Digital ruble. Public consultation report. Moscow, October 13. (In Russian).
2. Bogdanov A. (1918). Issues of socialism. Moscow: Writers Publ. in Moscow. (In Russian).
3. Ginzburg A. M. (1926). Introduction. In: Legislation on trusts and syndicates. Moscow: VSNH. (In Russian).
4. Goryunov E. L., Drobyshevsky S. M., Mau V. A., Trunin P. V. (2021). What do we (not) know about the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools in the modern world? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 5—34. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-5-34
5. Kaktyn A. (1922). Essays on the organization of the national economy. Moscow: Ekonomicheskaya Zhizn. (In Russian).
6. Kritsman L. (1925). The heroic period of the great Russian revolution. Moscow: Gosydarstvennoe Izdatelstvo. (In Russian).
7. Mau V. A. (2013). Reforms and dogmas. Moscow: Delo. (In Russian).
8. Reinhart C. M., Rogoff K. S. (2014). This time is different: A panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises. Moscow: Alpina Publishers. (In Russian).
9. Rodrik D. (2019). Straight talk on trade: Ideas for a sane world economy. Moscow: Gaidar Insitute Publ. (In Russian).
10. Roach S. (2019). Unbalanced: The codependency of America and China. Moscow: Gaidar Insitute Publ. (In Russian).
11. Vedev A. et al. (2020). Forecast of the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2020—2023. Moscow: Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy. (In Russian).
12. Blanchard O., Cerutti E., Summers L. (2015). Inflation and activity — two explorations and their monetary policy implications. NBER Working Paper, No. w21726. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21726
13. Caballero D., Lucas A., Schwaab B., Zhang X. (2019). Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort. BIS Working Papers, No. 766.
14. Cassim Z., Handjiski B., Schubert J., Zouaoui Y. (2020). The $10 trillion rescue: How governments can deliver impact. McKinsey & Company.
15. Coyle D. (2020). Why economics needs to wake up to aging populations. Financial Times, December 2. https://www.ft.com/content/fcbccad8-491e-4f5b-a859-6622bc368e5c
16. European Commission (2020). European economic forecast, Autumn 2020 (Institutional Paper No. 136). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2765/878338
17. Edwards S. (2019). Modern Monetary Theory: Cautionary tales from Latin America. Cato Journal, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 529—561. https://doi.org/10.36009/CJ.39.3.3
18. Frieden J. (2016). Lessons for the Euro from early American monetary and financial history. Brussels: Bruegel.
19. Frydman R., Phelps E. S. (2020). Insuring the survival of post-pandemic economies. Project Syndicate, March 23. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-insurance-requires-massive-government-intervention-by-roman-frydmanand-edmund-s-phelps-2020-03
20. Fukuyama F. (1989). The end of history? National Interest, No. 16, pp. 3—18.
21. Fukuyama F. (2020). The pandemic and political order: It takes a state. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 99, No. 4, pp. 26—32.
22. Fung V. K. (2020). The trade cure for the global economy (Международная торговля как лекарство для мировой экономики). Project Syndicate, April 22. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-crisis-revive-multilateralism-open-trade-by-victor-k-fung-2020-04
23. Georgieva K. (2020). Opening press conference, 2020 Spring Meetings, April 15. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/15/tr041520-transcript-of-imf-mdkristalina-georgieva-opening-press-conference-2020-spring-meetings
24. Gerlach S. (2020). Crunch time for central banks. Project Syndicate, September 15. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-response-to-publicopinion-on-inequality-environment-by-stefan-gerlach-2020-09
25. Ghosh J. (2020). Stop doing business. Project Syndicate, September 10. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/world-bank-should-scrap-doing-businessindex-by-jayati-ghosh-2020-09
26. Goodhart C., Pradhan M. (2020). The great demographic reversal: Ageing societies, waning inequality, and an inflation revival. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
27. Ha J., Ivanova A., Ohnsorge F. L., Unsal F. (2019). Inflation: Concepts, evolution, and correlates. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No. 8738. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8738
28. IMF (2020). Fiscal monitor, October 2020. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
29. IMF (2021a). IMF fiscal monitor update, January 2021. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
30. IMF (2021b). World economic outlook update: Policy support and vaccines expected to lift activity, January. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
31. Krauss M. (2020). Europe’s Faustian bargain. Project Syndicate, November 23. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-recovery-fund-german-italian-solidarity-by-melvyn-krauss-2020-11
32. Krugman P. (2020). 2020 was the year Reaganism died. The New York Times, December 28. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/opinion/reagan-economycovid.html
33. Laggarde C. (2017). A time to repair the roof. A speech by IMF managing director. Harvard University, October 5. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/10/04/sp100517-a-time-to-repair-the-roof
34. Mankiw N. G. (2020). A skeptic’s guide to Modern Monetary Theory. AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 110, pp. 141—144. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201102
35. Mazzucato M., Andreoni A. (2020). No more free-lunch bailouts. Project Syndicate, June 25. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/conditional-bailouts-ofprivate-companies-2020-crisis-by-mariana-mazzucato-and-antonio-andreoni-2020-06
36. Palacio A. (2020). COVID and the comeback state. Project Syndicate, December 29. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-pandemic-transformsrole-of-the-state-by-ana-palacio-2020-12
37. Pinkus G., Ramaswamy S. (2020). The ‘war’ on COVID-19: What real wars do (and don’t) teach us about the economic impact of the pandemic. McKinsey Global Institute
38. Pisani-Ferry J. (2020). The challenges of the post-pandemic agenda. Project Syndicate, July 27. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/harsh-uncertain-economic-transition-after-covid19-by-jean-pisani-ferry-2020-07
39. Prasad E. (2020). Don’t overestimate the COVID-19 recovery. Project Syndicate, October 15. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/weak-and-uneven-global-covid19-recovery-by-eswar-prasad-2020-10
40. Rajan R. G. (2020). Should governments spend away? Project Syndicate, August 3. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/government-spending-debt-burden-on-future-generations-by-raghuram-rajan-2020-08
41. Reinhart C. (2020a). This time truly is different. Project Syndicate, March 23. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-crisis-has-no-economic-precedentby-carmen-reinhart-2020-03
42. Reinhart C. (2020b). If it’s not over on the disease … it’s not over on the balance sheet. The Harvard Gazette, May 20. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/05/carmen-reinhart-named-chief-economist-at-the-world-bank
43. Roach S. (2020). The false crisis comparison. Project Syndicate, March 19. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid-19-crisis-nothing-like-2008-bystephen-s-roach-2020-03
44. Rodrik D. (2020). The coming global technology fracture. Project Syndicate, September 8. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/making-globaltrade-rules-fit-for-technology-by-dani-rodrik-2020-09
45. Rogoff K. (2003). Globalization and global disinflation. Economic Review — Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Vol. 88, No. 4, pp. 45—80.
46. Rogoff K. (2019). Modern Monetary Nonsense. Project Syndicate, March 4. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/federal-reserve-modern-monetary-theorydangers-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-03
47. Roubini N. (2019). The allure and limits of monetized fiscal deficits. Project Syndicate, October 28. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/limits-of-mmtsupply-shock-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-10
48. Roubini N. (2020). The coming Greater Depression of the 2020s. Project Syndicate, April 28. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depressioncovid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
49. Sjögren H., Iversen M. J. (2019). The state as the investor of last resort: A comparative study of banking crises in Denmark and Sweden. Scandinavian Economic History Review, Vol. 67, No. 2, pp. 171—189. https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.2018.1557075
50. Sneader K., Singhal S. (2020). The future is not what it used to be: Thoughts on the shape of the next normal. McKinsey and Company, April 14. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/leadership/the-future-is-not-what-it-usedto-be-thoughts-on-the-shape-of-the-next-normal
51. Spence M., Leipziger D. (2020). The pandemic public-debt dilemma. Project Syndicate, December 8. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemicspending-debt-dilemma-by-michael-spence-and-danny-leipziger-2020-12
52. The Economist (2020a). Germany’s bail-out brings worries about its long-term effects. The Economist, September 19. https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/09/16/germanys-bail-out-brings-worries-about-its-long-term-effects
53. The Economist (2020b). After the pandemic, will inflation return? The Economist, December 12—18. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/12/12/after-thepandemic-will-inflation-return
54. Velasco A. (2020). Are we all Keynesians again? Project Syndicate, August 25. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/states-must-be-insurer-of-last-resortagainst-aggregate-risks-by-andres-velasco-2020-08
55. Villegas A., Faiola A., Wroughton L. (2021). As spending climbs and revenue falls, the coronavirus forces a global reckoning. Washington Post, January 10. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/10/coronavirus-pandemic-debt-crisis/
56. Vives X. (2020). A stable Euro requires an ambitious industrial policy. Project Syndicate, September 4. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/european-industrial-policy-to-guide-recovery-fund-by-xavier-vives-2020-09
57. Weber A. A. (2021). Will inflation make a comeback? Project Syndicate, February 21. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-covid19-pandemic-couldlead-to-higher-inflation-by-axel-weber-1-2021-02
Review
For citations:
Mau V.A. Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2021;(3):5-30. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-3-5-30
Views:
2477
Email this article 
