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Voprosy Ekonomiki

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No 1 (2020)
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https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-1

ISSUES OF THEORY

5-17 2896
Abstract
The 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer for developing experimental approach to studying the problem of reducing world inequality. The works of laureates combine detailed microeconomic analysis of practical problems related to development economics with careful empirical estimation of the effects of particular development programs through the use of field experiments. The paper discusses methodological contribution of the laureates, their influence on changing economists’ approach to working on practical issues related to development economics. The paper also provides a short survey of the results of their research in areas of economics of education, health and behavioral economics, microcredit, and gender inequality.
18-46 7592
Abstract
This article analyzes both general issues of the theory of reforms and the history of economic reforms in Russia in the XIX—early XX century. The authors propose to consider the procces of carrying out reforms and counter-reforms as a result of interaction of several actors — “a theoretician”, “a reformer”, “a ruler”, “an elite” and “people”. During the whole Russian history reforms were of cyclic character. This article studies reforms conducted by M. M. Speransky, great reforms of Alexander II, reforms carried out by S. Yu. Vitte and P. A. Stolypin, counter-reforms of Nickolas I and Alexander III. All Russian reforms have always been aimed at the country’s modernization. However, though reforms were usually initiated for political reasons, economic reforms were in fact implemented. The tasks of modernization were realized in the first place in the military industry. Economic modernization occupied the second place by importance. Modernization of culture received much less attention, and modernization of political institutions was almost neglected. Historical experience shows that every project of modernization is unique and implies that reformers and intellectual elite are able to find those key decisions that will guarantee success. It is for this reason that the art of economic policy remains the prime factor in working out the strategy of reforms.
47-65 1979
Abstract
The article considers the “behavioral” modification of the standard DSGE model proposed by X. Gabaix. In his model, agents behave in a boundedly rational manner, showing incomplete attention to macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, unlike other attempts to abandon the hypothesis of rational expectations in favor of a model of adaptive and/or static expectations, the Gabaix model is initially constructed taking into account the inattention of economic agents to macro variables. The consequence of bounded rationality is that monetary policy is less effective (compared to the model of rational expectations) and, conversely, fiscal policy is effective due to the fact that Ricardo equivalence is not fulfilled. If the inertia of inflation expectations is taken into account in the Gabaix model, it demonstrates that the interest rate has a positive effect on inflation in the long run. Bayesian estimates for the rationality coefficient in the Russian economy are presented. Moreover, attention to inflation is much lower than attention to the variable of economic activity.

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

66-92 2562
Abstract

This article analyzes the key patterns of the dividend policy and the problem of the “dividend puzzle” in the general context of the development of the stock market in Russia. The article consists of two parts.

In the first part we summarize main research trends of dividend policy in modern economic theory (the classical Modigliani—Miller theory of dividend irrelevance, agent and signal hypotheses, the smoothing model, the catering theory, etc.). We emphasize the theoretical analysis of motivation of the largest Russian companies for profit allocation and dividend payout, based on a sample of 236 joint stock companies. Since 2012, a steady increase in dividend payments has been revealed in both private and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The bulk of dividend payments from SOEs accounts for only 12 major companies. Along with an increase in the market value, dividends have become an important factor in the total return on shares. Under current conditions, the probability of paying dividends depends not only on the size of the company and indicators of its’ financial stability, but also on the presence of the state in the capital of companies. However, the relationship between the probability of paying dividends and state participation in the ownership structure is not universal and can be explained by specific factors that go beyond the classical dividend theories.

In the second part we will analyze the patterns of stock market performance and dividend policy of the largest Russian companies, motivation for dividend payouts and special aspects of SOEs policy.

93-110 1500
Abstract
The reform of benchmarks is carried out in developed economies from 2014 to 2021. The starting point of a large-scale reform was the scandal with the interest rate LIBOR. Instead of it, national so-called “risk-free” interest rates will appear. Although a problem of manipulating LIBOR will be resolved, new benchmarks bring new problems. They have statistical biases and will not be comparable either to LIBOR or to each other due to methodological differences. The new benchmark rates are overnight rates, and their calculation does not imply the formation of term rates. Instead of the homogeneous LIBOR family, financial markets have received a heterogeneous group of new rates. In some developing economies money markets are absent, and their central banks are faced with a problem of how to calculate the local benchmark rate under the new rules. As an alternative they are searching to use interest rates in neighboring markets.
111-126 1074
Abstract
The paper considers the asymmetry of information waves and the relation of their news trails with market indicators and exchange rates. It draws on the crises of 1998, 2008 and 2014. The relationship between information waves and scenarios for the development of economic crises is established by comparing the frequency characteristics of certain phrases in the media and the group of financial indicators. A comparative and content analysis shows that the representation of crises in the Russian media coincides with the real state of the national economy only at the initial stage, after which the crises cease to be reflected in economic thinking in accordance with their significance. Thus, the paper concludes that the scale of economic crises is predictable in terms of the size of the information waves’ acute phase generated by these crises.

METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

127-144 2110
Abstract
Income is one of the most obvious and frequently used indicators of economic status and living standards. Surveys of households and individuals are the main sources of income data for sociologists and economists. Administrative data is added to them on a growing scale. Comparison of data obtained from different sources or surveys using different methods allows us to estimate biases, sources of errors, and demonstrates the absence of “ideal” income data in general. The review of foreign studies on this problem is supplemented by an example of calculations on data from the The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey — Higher School of Economics (RLMS—HSE): we compare the compositional individual income, calculated as the sum of types of income, and the total personal income reported by respondents. The first measurement of individual incomes has turned out to be more consistent and definite, less prone to measurement error, but gives lower values of individual incomes. The differences of the total personal income reported by respondents and compositional individual income are due not so much to the inaccuracy of the summation and rounding as to “conceptual” features of understanding of personal income by some respondents. Such comparisons are necessary in order to understand the limitations of various measurements of income, grounded and reflexive choice of its specific indicators.

REFLECTIONS ON THE BOOK

145-156 2426
Abstract
Why is it that in the history of mankind the economic prosperity of countries, and even over a relatively long time interval, is quite rare? Aсemoglu and Robinson (AR) proposed a fresh look at the problem in their new book “Narrow corridor: States, societies and the fate of freedom”. Here we examine the main elements of the conceptual framework in which different countries are located on a few subsets — despotic, constrained, absent, paper Leviathan — and also the transition of a country from one subset to another based on the application of the “Red Queen effect” is explained. We evaluate the explanatory potential of the heuristic model of AR in comparison with the approach of North, Wallis and Weingast to the study of social orders of limited and open access. Critical comments on the presented concept are formulated.

CRITIQUE AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

157-159 1646
Abstract
Book review: Yasin E. G. Russian economy: Lecture course. Book 1: The origins and panorama of market reforms. 2nd ed., revised.


ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)