No 12 (2020)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
5-23 1662
Abstract
The slowdown in economic growth in the world was noted back in 2019, and in early 2020 it intensified due to the coronavirus pandemic. The large-scale decline in economic activity because of the closure of many leading economies affected all countries, disrupting the usual way of life and business mechanisms. Regulators and governments were forced to urgently implement a wide range of support measures. At the same time, the root causes of the current crisis lie outside the economic or financial sphere, which makes it different from the previous ones. Uncertainty is complemented by the fact that the traditional relations in the economy and in society are fundamentally changing. The established global supply chains are disrupted, the nature of labor relations is beginning to change, and the remote access regime is increasingly practiced. Economies are losing the ability to function as self-sufficient systems and require more and more support measures. As of the end of 2020, the likelihood of a second wave of the pandemic is quite high, while its duration and scale are still unclear; the prospects for further development of the world economy are becoming more and more uncertain, and the scale and mechanisms of stabilization of the situation are becoming more diverse and non-standard.
LABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICS
24-40 2047
Abstract
The study focuses on the chronic or long-term poverty of the Russian population in the 2010s. To estimate the chronic poverty, Eurostat modified definition is applied. The level and factors of chronic poverty are estimated at the balanced panel data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey subject to sample attrition effect. The main factors of falling into a long-term poverty trap are the presence of children, unemployment, living in rural areas, and frequent alcohol consumption. The risk of chronic poverty is lower if family members have tried to start their own business. The presence of retirement age persons in the family and children growing up reduce the risk of poverty. Extreme poverty, with all other things being equal, makes it harder for families to escape from chronic poverty. The main factors of chronic poverty severity are similar to those of chronic poverty. Some differences in the effects on chronic and transitory components of poverty severity are identified. It is noted that the increase in the coverage of the chronic poor with multiple deprivations by the conditional cash transfer program with the extended period of support and the increased assistance granted to these persons could contribute to the chronic poverty reduction.
41-61 901
Abstract
Basing on the data of the population social well-being monitoring, held by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of RANEPA in the period from 2015 to 2019, expectations, evaluations, adaptive strategies and results of various population groups in the second half of the 2010s have been analyzed. The stages of “new reality” perception are shown — from expectations of quick escape to the trajectory of positive development to the growth of alarmist moods and then to distribution of stabilizing trend by the second half of 2019. The new forms of adaptive behavior are revealed, the most widespread and rapidly reproducible of which is reducing all types of expenses that led to decrease in the level and quality of life of various social groups. However, over time, the adaptive practices associated with labor and financial activity have been developed and spread basing on use of human capital. The characteristics and integral estimations of the country population social well-being have been analyzed. The data show that the scarcity of the positive social dynamics’ capacity actualizes the socioeconomic risks caused by the unfavorable situation with the virus.
62-79 1126
Abstract
The paper analyzes the impact of the federal regulatory burden on poverty dynamics in Russia. The paper provides regional level indices of the federal regulatory burden on the economy in 2008—2018 which take into account sectoral structure of regions’ output and the level of regulatory rigidity of federal regulations governing certain types of economic activity. Estimates of empirical specifications of poverty theoretical model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and institutional factors shows that limiting the scope of the rulemaking activity of government bodies and weakening of new regulations rigidity contributes to a statistically significant reduction in the level of poverty in Russian regions. Cancellation of 10% of accumulated federal level requirements through the “regulatory guillotine” administrative reform may take out of poverty about 1.1—1.4 million people.
80-103 1265
Abstract
The article examines one of the main indicators of pension adequacy the replacement rate. The importance of using this indicator for pension system management is substantiated. A methodology for determining theoretical and empirical replacement rates is proposed in relation to the peculiarities of the Russian system of compulsory pension insurance. The article presents the results of calculations carried out on the model of the theoretical replacement rate developed by the authors, according to which, in the current Russian conditions, the replacement coefficient for an employee with a median wage and average length of service is more than 40%, which corresponds to the international criteria for the sufficiency of pensions for this indicator. However, with higher wages, for example, equal to the average for Russia and above, there is a lag behind the level of most EU countries. Modeling shows that in 2002—2018, there was an increase in the differentiation of pensions and replacement rates depending on wages. The performed forecast calculations for the period up to 2050 have revealed the following trends: a decrease in replacement rates for recipients of minimum and median salaries, approximate stabilization for average salaries and growth for recipients with high salaries. The article provides a number of examples of using the theoretical replacement rate for the analysis of the pension system in terms of the effect on the level of pensions: participation in the formation of pension savings, valorization, years of the insurance period, etc.
104-124 2712
Abstract
The article analyzes the digital literacy of the elderly population and digitalization of enterprises — important indicators of competitiveness — in the EU countries. The research methodology is based on Eurostat data and indicators of the composite index of digitalization of economy and society developed by the European Commission. The results of the comparative analysis show that the digitalization of enterprises and population in transition countries lags behind the developed EU countries. The digital literacy of the elderly population remains the lowest and lags behind the digital literacy of the younger population. At the same time, the higher the share of enterprises with a high level of digitalization in a country, the larger the share of elderly population with a basic level of digital literacy.
DEBATING SOCIETY
125-140 1070
Abstract
The controversy over the role of institutions in the emergence of the modern development is analyzed in the article; essential faults in both institutionalism and its criticism are revealed. The faults in question are: The tendency to stay in the framework of economics as a purely empirical science, though the interdisciplinary character of the problem of modernization, its sociological and social-philosophical theory demands for the interdisciplinary and metatheoretical level; modernization is often considered only in its final stage (the development of modern institutions and the transition to the modern economic growth), while an analysis of social transformations on its earlier stages is necessary (the rise of cities as trade and craft centers, the expansion of urban markets, the extension of influence and independence of merchants and craftsmen); the theory is limited by the definitions of “economic growth” and “institutions” which clearly do not seem to be sufficient. It is considered to be essential to restore the term “social relations” in its Marxist meaning; in case of long-term historical transformations (such as modernization), its replacement by “institutions” is not valid (the terms “structures/relations” and “institutions” are not identical).
REFLECTIONS ON THE BOOK
141-152 1560
Abstract
The review сlaims that although the social nature of the Russian state is enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation and therefore represents a significant institutional fact, the social state has not yet become a reality in many areas of Russian society. There are differences in approaches to the interpretation of the social state among philosophers and economists, although the views of the latter, especially those in favor of “ethical economics”, are moving closer to a broader philosophical approach. It is argued that building both a social state and a qualitatively new system of national security requires a new approach to the hierarchy of priorities for this security.
ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)