FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
The article attempts to formulate the main characteristics of the concept of sustainable finance and determine its place among other concepts. Its certain autonomy from the concept of sustainable development is emphasized. Indicators are presented that demonstrate the outstripping growth of sustainable finance in the modern world, and assumptions about the reasons for this trend. The problem of the adequacy of rating assessments of corporate adherence to ESG principles is briefly touched upon, which turned out to be the weak point of the concept of sustainable finance. The current state of the concept of sustainable finance in Russia is assessed, the main obstacles to its implementation and feasibility are determined. Proposals are formulated for public policy measures that can stimulate the formation of domestic responsible investors in Russia, as well as other measures that will contribute to the implementation of the concept of sustainable finance.
In the global financial architecture, the functions of anti-crisis support and macroeconomic stabilization are performed by the institutions of the global financial safety net (GFSN). The volume of available financing within the framework of GFNS has grown 10 times over the past decade and reached the equivalent of 4% of world GDP. The literature’s standard understanding of a system of national reserves, swap agreements, regional financial mechanisms, and the IMF requires enlargement. The article proposes the concept of an enlarged global financial safety net, namely by including two new elements — multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support. The manifestations of this phenomenon in many regions of the world are shown in the activities of the largest international development banks and at the level of macroeconomic stabilization financing by individual donor countries, including during the current COVID crisis.
The article deals with the notion of the global financial cycle proposed by H. Rey and her co-authors. The driving forces of the global financial cycle are discussed along with the findings of the empirical papers testing this concept. It is shown that recognizing US monetary policy shocks as a major driver of the global financial cycle does not undermine the validity of the well-known “trilemma”: using the floating exchange rate regime still partly cushions developing and emerging market economies from external shocks. Its effect can be reinforced if macroprudential policy measures or partial restrictions on capital mobility are also applied. The review concludes by discussing possible extensions to the concept of global financial cycle.
The article examines the possible consequences of the new “Great Lockdown” crisis and their impact on the stability of the corporate sector in terms of external obligations. The author examines the trends in the dynamics of external debt and formulates the main threats to macroeconomic stability (sanctions, world recession, low oil prices), describes the scenario of shock propagation and its impact on companies’ solvency. Based on a sample for the period from 2006Q1 to 2020Q1 (57 observations) using the least squares method, three theoretical regression models (for the entire period, shock and “quiet” quarters) were constructed to explain the change in the level of debt burden of the corporate sector from a number of macroeconomic variables: capital outflow, foreign assets, oil prices, LIBOR rates, credit bond spread, etc. The results obtained can be used in the implementation of debt and prudential policies.
Based on expert interviews, the factors limiting the development of the Islamic finance market in Russia, the competitiveness and target audience of Islamic finance, as well as their future and dissemination model in the Russian economy are investigated. The interviews were conducted with the heads of banks, funds, Islamic finance and the managers of consulting companies. The paper focuses on how the participants and organizers of the Russian market themselves understand the phenomenon of Islamic finance. It is shown that the Islamic financial services in Russia are in demand and competitive. But the scaling of this business requires additional capital (liquidity). In turn, access to capital for the development of the sector can be provided by attracting a large strategic investor (principal) represented by a bank or financial-industrial group.
ECONOMICS OF HOUSEHOLDS
The paper considers a simple aggregated consumption function for Russian economy in which households consume a constant fraction of a permanent income. The value of this fraction is estimated by households within the framework of the adaptive expectations process based on the dynamics of GDP at constant consumption prices. Testing for a structural break at an unknown date in the parameter of the propensity to consume is performed. The results of econometric estimation, taking into account the presence of an endogeneity in the regression equation, demonstrate that after 2014 there was a structural break, as a result of which the parameter of the propensity to consume of permanent GDP decreased by 6.5—9.2%.
In order to study the structure of society, sociologists usually distinguish several homogeneous social groups, or classes. The most common division consists of three groups: upper, middle and lower classes. Such a partition is traditionally based on a subjective (exogenous) criteria adopted by a particular researcher. In this paper, the distribution of households in Russian federal districts is modeled as a mixture of three lognormal distributions. The mixing proportions (probabilities) of the mixture components and the corresponding distribution parameters are modeled as functions of the individual characteristics of households. The result is an endogenous decomposition of household sample into three clusters (lower, middle, upper). This classification allows analyzing the difference between regions and the patterns of intergroup dynamics in the period 2014—2018. The approach used in this work has demonstrated great flexibility in analyzing the distribution of income, the dynamics of this distribution over time, as well as a migration between relatively homogeneous clusters. The use of mixture density function with endogenously determined probabilities allows for precise detection of the effects of the income heterogeneity determinants within each cluster.
RESEARCH NOTES
The paper considers the criteria for choosing the recipients of state support to achieve tax justice in the conditions of the coronavirus crisis. The state of economic and human potential and budget sustainability of the subjects of the Russian Federation before the crisis and the level of development of entrepreneurial activity of the population in the regions are compared. A detailed review of tax support measures for individuals classified as small businesses or self-employed since the onset of the pandemic in Russia and abroad is presented. The paper argues that the criterion of fair selection of recipients of state tax support should correspond to their tax discipline. The results of the study can be used by the authorities in improving tax policy in the subjects of the Russian Federation, aimed at leveling negative effects of the coronavirus crisis.
The article presents the results of an operational assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the change in the gross urban product (GUP) in 17 metropolitan areas of Russia with a population of more than 1 million people in 2020. The goal of the authors was to try to answer the most actual questions nowadays (early 2021): how deep was the fall of the largest agglomerations economies in Russia and abroad; did the corona crisis have a more negative impact on the largest metropolitan areas then on the rest of the economy? In order to answer these questions, two main tasks were: 1) to assess GUP in 17 largest metropolitan areas of Russia; 2) to consider foreign estimates of the GUP in 2020. For foreign comparisons, the authors use the first published data on changes in GDP and gross urban/regional product in the United States, Canada and Australia. The assessment of GUP in this work is carried out through the assessment of the component of employee compensation and then the transition to the GUP indicator on the assumption that such a ratio of compensation of employees to GDP in a city equals the average of the said ratios for the 17 metropolitan areas. The assessment showed that the real GDP growth rates in 2020 were negative not in all metropolitan areas, and in most of them economic losses turned out to be less than those of the Russian economy as a whole.