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No 5 (2022)
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MACROECONOMICS

5-25 1449
Abstract

The inflation dynamics is a key factor in macroeconomic and social stability, having a direct impact on all structural proportions in the economy and the well-being of the population. This is especially noticeable during periods of acute shocks and crises. This article is an attempt to understand the inflationary consequences of the recent non-economic crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic. The global nature of this crisis, as well as its impact on all sectors of the economy and spheres of economic relations, provide rich material for the analysis. The geopolitical aggravation and large-scale sanctions against Russia in 2022 have become a new shock for the entire economic system, creating a trail of new inflationary effects at the global level and especially within Russia. The presence of a significant number of similarities between the two crises retains the relevance of a rigorous analysis of the coronacrisis and its lessons, despite the radical change in the situation due to the onset of the sanctions crisis.

26-50 788
Abstract

Modern economic life is characterized by an exponential increase of available information and a shortening time for decision-making. Hence, the necessity for more timely composite macroeconomic indicators is increasing (objectively), but the supply of such instruments lags behind the demand. This paper develops the daily Economic Stress Index (ESI) for the Russian Federation. It differs from all previously proposed Russian high-frequency indices as it has daily indicators for real, banking, and consumer sectors among its 17 components (along with commonly used indicators for financial and commodity markets). In retrospect, the ESI successfully generated “alarm signals” during the recessions of 1998, 2008—2009 and 2015—2016. As it was publicly introduced in March 2020, we were able to trace the COVID-19 recession in Russia in real-time. Given this experience, we believe that the proposed daily ESI may continue to be used to monitor the Russian business cycle without any lags.

51-78 631
Abstract

This article compares the author’s projections of the global energy system evolution up to 2020 as made in the early 1990s, against the actual data. This type of analysis is a rare and therefore an interesting case. Typically, after pro­jections for decades ahead have been published, no one bothers to compare them with the reality. Long-term projections are expected to outline possible states of the explored systems and to develop policy recommendations. The question of whether such projections can be trusted is always in minds of the projections’ “consumers” (decision-makers and experts), but very rarely a clear answer is provided. This paper fills this gap and shows that the “lessons of the future” can be learned based on well-structured models and analytical schemes.

ECONOMICS OF INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

79-98 601
Abstract

Information technology (IT) companies design and disseminate new technologies, sources of digital solutions for a wide range of economic agents. The size of the IT sector in Russia and its contribution to the national economy still lag behind the level of the leading countries. In recent years, the number of estab­lished IT companies has been declining, while the number of liquidated com­panies has been growing. The business demographics of IT companies represent exceptional regional differentiation, more than a twofold interregional gap on the birth and death rates. The paper explores the relationship between the demog­raphy of Russian IT companies from 2010 to 2020 with the help of regression analysis (Arellano—Bond method). The results showed a general shift of activity in the direction from east to west and an increase in the concentration of IT companies in metropolitan centers; stable differences between the western and eastern territories of Russia; the significance of regional institutional environment and habitat. The results of the study are important for decision making to support the development of the digital economy in Russian regions.

99-120 1020
Abstract

The need to formulate a new approach to a more effective analysis of the development of technological innovations has led to the creation of a number of concepts. One of them is the concept of technological innovation system (TIS). TIS is a systematic approach for understanding the development, diffusion and use of new technologies. The concept is widely used in the study of technological innovation in developed countries, becoming increasingly popular in developing countries. In Russia, this concept did not receive such wide development as abroad. This paper presents a detailed description of the basic conceptual milestones of TIS, shows the fundamental differences of this concept from other innovative concepts, its advantages and disadvantages. Based on the results of the analysis, it has been concluded that, despite the existing shortcomings, TIS provides a comprehensive analysis of the development of technologies within the framework of existing socio-political, economic and organizational factors. TIS promotes understanding of the mechanism of emergence and growth of new technologies and industries, focusing on the analysis of barriers and driving forces of this process. The results of TIS analysis are traditionally used as a basis for developing policy recommendations.

DEBATING SOCIETY

121-135 484
Abstract

The analysis of the “power-property” concept and its critics shows that the question in issue is not the phenomenon itself but its intensity in a certain historical period in a certain country. Therefore, methods of theoretical history are necessary for positive knowledge accumulation in Eastern historical studies of problems of laissez-faire and dirigisme during the transition to modern economic growth. It enables to overcome the metaphysical character of reasoning, which is especially typical for the Marxists. Their conceptual framework, however, should not be applied by default — only as a metatheoretical basis for forthcoming research. The paper points out another range of issues related to both “materialistic” and “institutionalist” explanations of the “power-property” phenomenon; it is suggested to separate such issues as the origin of the phenomenon and its further reproduction. The argumentation is based on the data of the historiography of China, as well as on the key concepts of historical sociology relating to the studies of the cyclic dynamics of traditional societies.

RESEARCH NOTES

136-146 655
Abstract

The methods for studying the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of those employed on digital labor platforms are discussed. The Federal State Statistics Service does not conduct a relevant study as part of its annual labor force survey. Other official data are also not available. It is found that platform employment is about 6.5 million people, of whom 29.9% are women and 70.1% men. Most of them are employed in the field of recruitment, the second place is occupied by cab services, the least of all platform workers are employed in tutoring and training. The questionnaire survey showed a small percentage of citizens’ involvement in platform employment. However, a sample survey of the population in the form of a questionnaire is the most effective method for studying qualitative characteristics of platform employment.

SCIENTIFIC LIFE



ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)