MACROECONOMICS
The paper estimates the trajectory of trend inflation for Russia. A discussion of inflation measures used in macroeconomic models is presented, as well as the analysis of theoretical and empirical models that include a trend inflation indicator for monetary policy analysis. The paper also provides an overview of the use of trend inflation by monetary authorities of developed countries and emerging markets. Based on the methodology for assessing trend inflation with the help of models of unobservable components, the Kalman filter and including structural factors, the trajectory of trend inflation for the Russian economy from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2021 is obtained. In addition, the paper provides a historical decomposition of cyclical inflation into structural shocks, as well as the decomposition of the variance of its forecast error into the considered shocks for 24 months in advance. The results of the econometric analysis testify in favor of a gradual decrease in the trend inflation rate to 4% per year after the 2015 crisis and further stabilization at this level. The situation in 2022 can be analyzed by analogy with the period of 2014—2015, one can expect a similar scenario for trend and actual inflation to return to pre-crisis levels in 2022 within one year (by March 2023).
The concept of monetary aggregates has always followed changes in monetary policy. Its development reflects the victories and mistakes of monetary authorities. Although they played the roles of operational and intermediate targets in the past, today they are used in the analysis of the banking sector and financial stability. Some economists believe that broad monetary aggregates such as Divisia help explain macroeconomic dynamics and should be included in the central bank’s interest rate decision rules. In addition, functional monetary aggregates are proposed as an alternative, behind which there are complex calculations. In the near future, the introduction of central bank digital currencies must lead to a redefinition of the monetary base and simple aggregates.
LABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICS
The paper reviews historical and modern understanding of meritocracy and meritocratic approaches and practices in the application to the selection of political leaders and governmental officials. A theoretical framework of analyzing meritocracy in the modern science is also considered from the stand-point of various disciplines such as economics, political science, sociology, and as applied to the quality of human capital. Meritocratic principles of selecting candidates for positions in public service in the Western countries differ a lot from the ones used in China and Singapore. China partly revitalizes its ancient traditions of meritocracy, and partly adopts the experience of Singapore where meritocratic principles form the basis of state governance, and where the system of education is oriented at selection and training of the most capable candidates. However, in both countries meritocracy has not yet helped to solve many existing problems, and even more — it creates new concerns and challenges. Therefore, it becomes essential to discuss whether Singapore meritocratic approach is transferable to other countries.
In the study we explore the evolution of the job structure in the Russian economy during the first 20 years of this century. Does it change through a consequent substitution of relatively worst (in terms of quality) jobs by better jobs? Or through a destruction of middle quality jobs? Or do we observe stagnation and conservation of the job structure? Any structural change of this sort is usually triggered by technological progress that shapes demand for labor of different quality and complexity. In search for clues to these questions, the authors use large data sets which cover two sub-periods divided by the 2008—2009 crisis. The estimates presented in the paper allow reject the polarization hypothesis, and they document a fast upgrade of the job structure during the first sub-period and a much lower upgrade during the second one. Apparently, the risks of job polarization are likely to be minimal until the economic growth is recovered and the movement to the technological frontier is accelerated.
The paper investigates recent developments in the minimum wage policy in Russia. We focus on the effects of two interventions: (1) the decision of the Russian Constitutional Court of December 7, 2017 to exclude mandatory regional compensation payments and Northern allowances from the minimum wage; (2) the decision to equate the national minimum wage with the subsistence level through two hikes in early 2018. Our empirical analysis is based on the data for 2016Q1—2022Q1, covering the period before and after the interventions. The decision of the Constitutional Court introduced an additional tier of minimum wage setting. Formerly, minimum wages were regionalized in a decentralizedway via tripartite collective bargaining at the regional level. Since 2018, this approach has been supplemented with the centralized regionalization via mandatory regional coefficients. The decision to equate the minimum wage with the subsistence level also contributed to the increase in centralization as it reduced the room the social partners to set regional minima above the federal level. As a result, the regionalization via regional tripartite agreements has basically ceased to exist, although before 2018 it showed a decent ability to adapt to local conditions. Policy developments in 2017—2018 reduced the interregional variation in the bindingness and purchasingpower of minimum wages. However, it might have happened at the expense of economically weak regions. In poor regions, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average wage has exceeded 50%, which exacerbates the risks of disemployment and welfare losses in those regions.
MICROECONOMICS
The paper, using the example of publications in federal periodicals in the period from 1991 to 2022, examines the process of formation and transformation of economic thinking paradigms that have gone from a liberal economic agenda that promotes the values of private property and market reforms to an administrative concept that brings paternalistic sentiments to the fore and pro-government stance. The content analysis and sentiment analysis of the texts, carried out by the author, show that over the three decades of post-Soviet transformations, not only the economic ideas broadcast through periodicals have noticeably transformed, but also the emotive field of these ideas has changed sign from negative to positive context. The conclusion is drawn about the prospects for such a transformation, which inevitably leads to the consolidation in the public mind of the principles of learned helplessness and a return to the argumentative constructions of the Soviet period with the dominant role of distribution motives and state support for the economy. The results showed that the increase in the subjectivity of the media in the representation of economic topics during periods of dominance of paradigms and the intention of periodicals for objectivity during the period of paradigm transition.
DEBATING SOCIETY
The article is devoted to the critique of K. Marx’s labor theory of value, which was started in 1884 by F. G. Wicksteed. This polemic is based on a misunderstanding of the scientific abstraction method and the dialectics of Marx. His opponents critisize Marx for not using the notion of “abstract utility”. It is shown why the exchange value of goods should be based on socially necessary labor costs. The subjective utility value is not suitable to determine the proportions of exchange.
The article shows that ideology in Russia launches the mechanism of transition from one institutional cycle to another, since the image of the future in it is associated with the denial of the existing order. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the ideology of socialism, which denies private property, contributed to the rooting of the razdatok (distributive) economy, which has been the base of Russian state since its inception. At the end of the twentieth century, the ideology of Russian liberalism led to the introduction of market institutions into the Russian economy, but as a result, a quasi-market rent based economy was formed. Such a model has become, both at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, and at the present time, the cause of economic stagnation and social polarization. A hypothesis is put forward that at the present moment, the existing socio-economic mechanism performs an auxiliary and temporary role of a “shell” for the maturation of a new development model, which will cause a transition to a new institutional cycle based on the “contractual razdatok economy” and the ideology of solidarism.
RESEARCH NOTES
The high level of income inequality of the population is a long-term problem in the world. The pandemic of 2020 and the growth of geopolitical tensions in 2022 increase the urgency of finding its solution. Inequality is a multifaceted phenomenon determined by various factors — from differences in the structure of economies to the specifics of the mentality and traditions of a particular state. As a result, there are no unified approaches to reducing inequality. This article analyzes the relationship of income inequality in Russia with the parametersof fiscal policy and the ruble exchange rate at different stages of economic development. It is shown that in certain periods taxes are connected differentlywith income inequality of the population in Russia. The important role of social spending in its reducing is shown; such dependence may be explained by the ruble exchange rate and its linkages with the budget policy. The article is setting stage for further analysis of the problem.