ISSUES OF THEORY
The article is devoted to the role of stylized facts in the formation and implementation of a research program. The state of modern economic theory is considered from the standpoint of using the generalization method as one of the main methods of scientific knowledge. Three potential sources of weakness in theoretical research have been identified: insufficient attention to stylized facts, a shortage of such facts themselves, and ignoring the possibilities of reducing this deficit. Insufficient attention is illustrated, in particular, by the example of a macroeconomic description of technological renewal of production. Even advanced models of macroeconomic dynamics tend to ignore the existence of a period of simultaneous development of old and new technologies, during which the new ones used are still inferior in their characteristics to the old technologies. In the context of the transition to digital technologies, it becomes especially important to take into account the effects of scale characteristic of these technologies, but they are not taken into account in the new neoclassical synthesis. Modern digital technologies open up prospects for the formation of “quasi-stylized” facts with the help of models capable of simulating long-term experience of economic development in a short time. The peculiarity of stylized facts for different time periods is due to the use of specialized theories for individual stages of economic development.
The paper highlights the theory of cultural evolution by F. A. Hayek, which in retrospect appears as a complex and deep system, in many respects anticipating the ideas of modern evolutionary psychology. The second part dicusses its key element — the idea of group selection, which Hayek used to explain why, in the long-run evolutionary perspective, more efficient social orders capable of providing a higher living standard and supporting a larger population are more likely to survive. This became grounds for his accusations of shifting onto the position of methodological holism. However, under closer examination group selection and methodological individualism turn out to be quite compatible, appearing in Hayek’s understanding as two aspects of a unite explanatory scheme.
MICROECONOMICS
The paper focuses on ethical consumption, which is one of the most debatable types of the “non-standard” consumption. Despite its growth in recent decades, the diverse criticism of the phenomenon has continued: ranging from the statements that this phenomenon cannot be significant or effective to categorical statements regarding its mythical essence or verbal existence. The article shows that this criticism is due to a lack of clarity in the theoretical concepts of the phenomenon. Based on the accumulated scientific knowledge, including the results of both foreign and a series of representative studies in Russia, the article substantiates the basics of ethical consumption and the resulting prospects for its conceptualization. It is concluded that a complex, interdisciplinary, and multilevel understanding of the nature and the specifics of the phenomenon formation allows eliminating most of the criticism and validating effective partnership models between key actors as well as minimizing the risks of applying the growing consumption demand by the destructive forces.
LABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICS
The paper explors the key development in the Russian labor market of the 2020s — emergence of a massive overhang of vacant jobs. It discusses theoretical aspects of the problem of labor “shortage”, examines probabale triggers for the vacancy spurt, and analyzes its dynamics and composition. The starting point of this spurt had a precise time reference — the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, as evidenced by a sharp upward shift in the Beveridge curve in the second quarter of 2020. New exogeneous processes started in 2022 (such as mobilization and “relocation”) gave it even greater scale. The vacancy overhang is universal: there is no industry or occupation where it did not grow. These shifts marked the transition of the Russian labor market to a new operational regime.
The article examines the factors influencing the duration of registered unemployment and the probability of employment after it. Such an analysis is important for determining the target direction of active and passive state labor market policies and transitioning to evidence-based policy implementation. The empirical basis of the study consists of impersonal microdata on the characteristics of citizens officially considered as unemployed and the services they received in 2017—2019. We assess the probability of exit and the duration of staying in registered unemployment using survival analysis methods (Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan—Meier survival function). Our results showed that higher education together with high qualification level of women and belonging to the group of skilled workers of men, increased the likelihood of transition from registered unemployment to permanent work. Women with low education and qualification levels living in rural areas move faster into temporary employment. The research findings are relevant for developing policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of employment centers especially those providing services toward rural unemployed.
DEBATING SOCIETY
The present article is a response of the authors of the theory of the shifting mode of reproduction (SMR) to the critical article by E. Goryunov “Theory of the shifting modes of reproduction: Where do the non-neutrality of money and economic cycles come from?” (Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, No. 12). The main disagreement between us and Goryunov is as follows. We believe that money can be non-neutral in the long-run, and therefore the policy of monetary stimulation under certain conditions is able to activate economic growth in the long run. Goryunov adheres to the opposite point of view and tries to justify it. In our reply, we prove that Goryunov’s criticism is untenable because it is based on artificial techniques and false preconditions that have no relation to the PRV model. There is no doubt that the SMR model needs further improvement. However, we are by no means going to give up the obvious advantage of the model: its ability to consider economic growth as a process that depends significantly on the financing of investment in fixed capital. This kind of monetary stimulation of growth is inherent in the real economy, and the SMR model mimics it.